A decade ago at this time of year we'd be ice skating around Moses Lake, where I live in Washington state. And two weeks later in the season the fishermen would be driving their pickup trucks out for ice fishing. No one but an idiot drives their trucks out onto the ice any more and the local fathers built a free ice rink to keep the kids off the ice which is not as thick as it used to be even at the height of the winter season. But I like to think that in return for my loyal purchases of useless crap from China they have reciprocated by burning enough coal to warm up even my remote corner of the planet. Why it makes me want to get in the car and drive to Wal-Mart even now! Today, a few days before Thanksgiving and just over a week before December the air temp was 50F and the water temp 35F and the sun was shining brightly enough to lure me from my sofa and away from the Military Channel and get me into a drysuit and out on the lake in my trusty Mariner II. The dogs thought I was nuts but I provide food and the occasional scratch and, besides, it's pretty entertaining to watch me trying to get into the kayak on the rocky beach. In a mostly-futile effort to control invading water plants the local water district lowers the lake level every year after the irrigation season is over and my convenient dock is six feet above the water right now. In order to get into the kayak I have to get the boat down from the dock to the "beach", find a place more-or-less not covered in boulders, and get in. It's ok... this is what makes kayaking an adventure. And keeps the dogs entertained. The lake has an entirely different feel with the water level down so far. The cut under the I-90 freeway that separates my part of the lake from the main part to the south is narrow in the winter and the "5mph" speed limit signs are high above my head. Not that the boaters and jet skiers notice them, anyway. On my way south to the grass islands I paddle up to a pair of crawdad traps apparently abandoned by a fisherman earlier this fall. I checked both and they were full of mud and weeds so I put them back into the water closer to each other just in case the owner came back to find them. The marker buoy was half of a McDonalds big mac foam package. Just south of the grass island is a lighthouse marking a reef that is barely covered at summer water levels. At this time of year they are high and dry and it's easy to see why so many power boaters and jet skiers come to grief on the rocks. The landowner to the east of the reef has constructed high own unofficial lighthouse which most boaters, unfamiliar with navigational markers, probably think is just a kid's playhouse. I took out my iPhone and carefully took a few photos for my blog. About this time my hands were beginning to get uncomfortably cold. My gloves are adequate for water temps in the 50s but when the water is just above freezing they are clearly inadequate. I have pogies but chose not to use them so I decided to head back home. I'm thinking that with a little luck - and more people commuting one-to-a-car - I should be able to kayak year around in another decade. More story and pics on my blog, www.nwkayaking.net. Craig Jungers Moses Lake, WA www.nwkayaking.net *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Craig, All interesting local facts, observed and documented. How about October snow in the Sierras, the usual is hope for snow by Thanksgiving? Two or three years ago winter lasted 7 months, from a friend who lives there. Colors in the trees are more brilliant this year in this neighborhood, last few years have been particularly dull. We had frost in October, in addition the very cool summer, no extended warm periods, no need for the AC, butter left on the kitchen table didn't melt into a puddle. How about much of the country is reporting record, early, low temps. It's in the same newspapers that tout GW. In Europe Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,662092,00.html time out, wow. How about we had a legitimate spike in temps for a few years and no one has figured out the mechanism why and reported it, Then the con men/politicians, pretty much the same thing, seized on a way to alarm the populace and create a crisis. "It's a shame to let a good crisis go to waste" Rahm Emanuel, unwittingly confirming what thinking individuals believe much of government is all about. So Moses Lake is Warmer but it looks like a whole lot of the rest of the world, including Germany isn't. Oh, Copenhage is up, was it .04 Celsius just in time for the pollution spewing politicians to fly in. I still want an explanation for the warming in middle ages Europe, why there were grapes growing in places that cannot support them now. That is more than a blip Why the vikings were able to settle land that eventually froze them out. Were they driving SUV, or using incandescent light bulbs? A lot of history, history many of us have lived through has extreme blips, rain for weeks on end, flooding the Mississippi Basin, years of drought in California followed by amazing floods, enough water to wash out culverts on I-5. That massive rain is credited to El Nino although it is not 100% accurate, some el nino years are drought years, but a betting man would go with them being wet, I think it is about 80% accurate AND WHY is there a collusion of scam artists pretending to do science on both sides of the Atlantic and Pacific, and the media we rely on for news not willing to release the data they use for their conclusions and when the data is acquired we find they blackmailed opponents, either were willing to delete inconvenient data or suppress it, threaten bodily harm to those they disagree with. It's all out there if you want to read it and more is coming. Climate changes, you folks up north were under anywhere from a few feet to two miles of ice depending on which expert you want to believe and which locality. It's good there has been enough global warming that we cannot walk across the ice between Alaska and the Russia that Sarah can see from her home (thanks to SNL for a funny, if inaccurate line) or maybe you like living in an ice cave. Man made climate change is a hoax, or worse. Lawsuits are being filed now and the true believers are going to have to pony up the data in court. Then it will hopefully be settled. On Tue, Nov 24, 2009 at 5:55 PM, Craig Jungers <crjungers_at_gmail.com> wrote: > A decade ago at this time of year we'd be ice skating around Moses Lake, > where I live in Washington state. And two weeks later in the season the > fishermen would be driving their pickup trucks out for ice fishing. No one > but an idiot drives their trucks out onto the ice any more and the local > fathers built a free ice rink to keep the kids off the ice which is not as > thick as it used to be even at the height of the winter season. But I like > to think that in return for my loyal purchases of useless crap from China > they have reciprocated by burning enough coal to warm up even my remote > corner of the planet. Why it makes me want to get in the car and drive to > Wal-Mart even now! > *********************************************************************** Makes me wonder if the anti-business attitude that has been running this country for the last couple of decades is having the desired effect, The jobs don't go over seas because our governments are encouraging growth. Let's see, we have minimum wages, China doesn't, we have stringent environmental laws run amok driving up the cost of goods produced w/o adding to the quality of the product, China doesn't. We have increasingly oppressive/regressive tax on earners, China Doesn't. Much of the same can be said of India too. In no way am I supporting exploiting honest labor, but business is being driven out by policy decisions People with money and business are leaving California, A tax seminar that my CTAC certified sweetie just went to outlined a trap set by our legislature making an employee tax increase retroactive, we are all going to owe back taxes and penalties. More business and producers are leaving the state in large part because of oppressive, freedom restricting governments, federal, state and local. Global Warming is the tool by which they are achieving their end. The political class (royalty) and the serfs. Orwellian. And don't forget AlGore's current book cover. Hurricanes on the Equator. Fraud, just simply fraud Choose your glacier carefully, not all are shrinking, reporting in the popular press is very selective about what it prints.. *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Mike and Paul, I suddenly realized that you two are iconoclasts and no amount of evidence is going to sway you; further discussion is really a waste of bandwidth. But just to give Mike some data that his theory that in 2009 most of the earth cooled... only the central part of the USA was cooler on average. Here is the link to the story (although I'm pretty sure neither of you will accept the data as anything other than true-believer propaganda): http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/2009-08-10-july-climate-report_N.htm Craig Jungers Moses Lake, WA www.nwkayaking.net *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Craig Jungers wrote: > Mike and Paul, > > I suddenly realized that you two are iconoclasts and no amount of evidence > is going to sway you; further discussion is really a waste of bandwidth. > > But just to give Mike some data that his theory that in 2009 most of the > earth cooled... only the central part of the USA was cooler on average. Here > is the link to the story (although I'm pretty sure neither of you will > accept the data as anything other than true-believer propaganda): > http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/2009-08-10-july-climate-report_N.htm Iconoclasm comes in various guises. In the case of the anti-GW sentiments expressed by Mike and Paul, it is unfortunately mainly diatribes tailored to confuse and negate, rather than explicate. What to do when confronted with such no-nothing responses? Well, check sources, look at the arguments, and see whether the responses respond to the arguments of others. I think you will find their contributions lacking. There is, however a legitimate root cause for skepticism on GW. I think it is this: Everybody wants "proof" of GW theories. And we can never have the kind of proof we have that atoms exist, that electrons go around them, and cause electricity to flow in wires. Atmospheric science is one of the sciences where the fabric of investigation and verification is different than it is in other venues. We will never have any "proof," in the classic sense, that CO2 and other greenhouse gases are the direct cause of GW, for this fundamental reason: you can't purposely dump a lot of CO2 (or similar) into the atmosphere to see what happens, and then take it out to see if the effect is reversed. All of the evidence is correlative, and it will always be thus. Because there is no comparable period in traceable geologic history when CO2 levels rose as high as they are now, we do not even have a second example that looks like what we are experiencing now. We are stuck depending on the skills, ethics, and talents of geophysical and atmospheric science experts, and their models. The fundamental argument of the anti-GW crowd is that we are being purposely fooled by those experts, who are acting in conspiracy mode to drive public furor and fear to fund their work. What utter crap! Scientists are a many times more ethical, especially in the climate of peer review criticism extant to achieve publication, than most any other crowd of professionals you might choose. In the States much of this GW skepticism is driven by the far right wing. They cherry-pick their examples and spurn a holistic, overall analysis of what we see happening. And, they are hate- and fear-mongers. It is sickening to watch. Some (e.g., the infamous Rush Limbaugh) even make a living from their diatribes. It is very sad and frustrating for all scientists. But, a lesson on the sometimes low state of public discourse and a severe test of everyone's crap-detectors. -- Dave Kruger Astoria, OR *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
I'm not an atmospheric scientist, and don't even play one on TV. I can't prove or disprove GW. There is interesting anecdotal evidence out there. Glacier National Park in Montana has all but lost it's glaciers in 100 years. The ice cap on Mt. Kilimanjaro is disappearing rapidly. Randall Washburn (spelling not guaranteed) documented receding glaciers by photography from the air. I'm told that polar bears are having difficulty making a living eating seals due to a diminishing Arctic ice pack. The Sahara desert grows across the African continent, causing native peoples to move. This doesn't prove GW. But it sure makes my ears perk up. I've already found a bull elk in my yard. I'm not ready for a polar bear. BRC Quoting Dave Kruger <kdruger_at_pacifier.com>: > We will never have any "proof," in the classic sense, that CO2 and > other greenhouse gases are the direct cause of GW, for this > fundamental reason: you can't purposely dump a lot of CO2 (or > similar) into the atmosphere to see what happens, and then take it > out to see if the effect is reversed. > > All of the evidence is correlative, and it will always be thus. > Because there is no comparable period in traceable geologic history > when CO2 levels rose as high as they are now, we do not even have a > second example that looks like what we are experiencing now. We are > stuck depending on the skills, ethics, and talents of geophysical > and atmospheric science experts, and their models. *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Bradford R. Crain wrote: > I'm not an atmospheric scientist, and don't even play one > on TV. I can't prove or disprove GW. There is interesting > anecdotal evidence out there. Glacier National Park in Montana > has all but lost it's glaciers in 100 years. The ice cap on > Mt. Kilimanjaro is disappearing rapidly. Randall Washburn (spelling > not guaranteed) documented receding glaciers by photography from > the air. I'm told that polar bears are having difficulty making a living > eating seals due to a diminishing Arctic ice pack. The Sahara desert > grows across the African continent, causing native peoples to move. This > doesn't prove GW. But it sure makes my ears perk up. I've already found > a bull elk in my yard. I'm not ready for a polar bear. > > BRC > And, some say it's the warming climate that is inducing various species to move farther north. In this case, I'm thinking of the DNA evidence that Grizzly Bears are so far north -- and Polar Bears so far south (in search of food because they can't get out on ice to hunt seals) -- that the two species are cross-breeding. You *really* don't want one of those in your back yard! Or in your local body of paddling water! -- Darryl *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
To be honest, it was not all that easy to get myself out of a warm bed and into a kayak at the crack of dawn. But I went through the ritual of getting my dry suit on and launched in cold pouring rain at the Kenmore launch on Lake Washington. I started up the slough but there was more current than I was willing to deal with so I headed out onto the lake. Still trying to convince myself that this was the right thing to do, I just sat and drifted out in the middle of the bay for a bit, and that's when I saw a small ripple in the otherwise calm flatness of the water. Probably a fish. Maybe I should have thrown a pole onto the deck. But imagine my surprise when a seal surfaced just a few feet away! At first I was afraid it would try and climb on my deck and possibly tip my Greenland kayak over. I was very aware at that moment of my 20.5 inch beam. He (she?) would surface all around me, sometime bumping the bow of the boat with his nose, and sometimes following behind me. I was trying to figure out the connection and I guess it was that we had a mutual curiosity. Or maybe he was looking for a handout. Or maybe he was thanking me for using nylon to skin my boat instead of relatives :) Unfortunately I only had my old cell phone in an old plastic phone dry case to take pictures with, so the photos are extremely low quality. After paddling around in circles for an hour we both went our own way. As I was fighting a 3 knot current to get back up to the launch a jet ski was going out. There didn't seem to be any mutual curiosity there, and I was sure that he wouldn't have the opportunity to play with a seal. http://picasaweb.google.com/kayakster/Nature#5408496081969662290 http://picasaweb.google.com/kayakster/Nature#5408496148575786738 http://picasaweb.google.com/kayakster/Nature#5408496200959428690 Paul Montgomery paul_at_paddleandoar.com http://paddleandoar.com *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
On Thu, Nov 26, 2009 at 11:51 AM, Paul Montgomery <paul_at_paddleandoar.com>wrote: > > But imagine my surprise when a seal surfaced just a few > feet away! > > There was, allegedly, a seal that enjoyed climbing onto kayak decks in the Anacortes area according to a story we heard from the employees of a now-defunct paddling shop there. Close encounter of the unwanted kind? Even so, my memories of paddling and boating on Puget Sound do not include encounters of any sort with seals, sea lions, bald eagles, otters, etc. This includes having an office that actually extended over the salt water in Coupeville with lots of windows (in 1965). Saw a lot of seagulls though. I would like to add that my thoughts are with the friends and families of the four police officers killed yesterday as well as with the residents of the Lakewood and Tacoma and the entire area.. Quite a shock. Craig Jungers Moses Lake, WA www.nwkayaking.net *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
On Nov 30, 2009, at 7:33 PM, Craig Jungers wrote: > There was, allegedly, a seal that enjoyed climbing onto kayak decks > in the Anacortes area according to a story we heard from the > employees of a now-defunct paddling shop there. The big surprise for me is that this was in Lake Washington - not salt water. Paul Montgomery paul_at_paddleandoar.com http://paddleandoar.com *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Last year in Tomales Bay, several kayaker reported being accosted by an otter. He would board the kayaks and take things like water bottles and leave. Never did any physical damage that I heard of. One person having the encounter saw this otter was tagged and reported the number to the park rangers. They said he was a known problem and had been brought up from Monterey because of his boldness. Didn't hear what happened to him after that, i've heard no more reports this year. *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Paul Montgomery said > After paddling around in circles for an hour we both went our own way. One always hopes that the other participant enjoyed the experience too ;-) We're having a unusually eventful marine-mammal springtime in Auckland. We have local regional populations of Orca numbering some hundreds of individuals, but it usually makes the radio if Orca either come into the inner harbour or come and play with kayakers. Over the last two weekends, I've had friends experience two completely separate encounters where family groups of around 10 Orca have come in (much faster than kayak speed) and spent time (around 10 minutes) with groups of 10 paddlers. One group was in sea kayaks (mostly yum-yum yellow) and had encounters of less than 2m distance, but no touches. The other group of paddlers was out on surf-skis (long, very skinny & fast racing sit-on-tops - almost always white) and one of the best paddlers was gently bumped from underneath by an Orca playfully (?) coming up under the ski. Oscar stayed upright, but I believe his heart rate rose. Being springtime and being sit-on-tops, the ski paddlers often wear farmer johns - which as one of them said - make her feel uncomfortably like a seal when in the water;-) So far so good. We keep saying that no one's heard of Orca deciding kayakers taste good. We're also having trouble with a stroppy dolphin: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10611828 and http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10612601 SO the 'hood's definitely getting tougher. Best Regards Paul Hayward, Auckland, New Zealand *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
As a scientist, I am continually amazed that people who lack basic literacy in the field have the audacity to not only think they understand complex issues like global warming, but the outright arrogance to assert that they can participate in the scientific conversation despite the fact that they don't speak the language it's conducted in. To explain: there are a multitude of basic physical concepts that must be mastered before one can grasp a subject like climatology. The list is long, but might reasonably include things like adibiatic cooling, ocean currents, Rayleigh scattering, planetary albedo, jet streams, ionization, and hundreds of others. Yet we frequently find -- as in this discussion thread on this list -- that there are people holding strong opinions on the topic who don't understand these concepts -- and therefore do not know what those opinions mean. (We know that they don't understand the concepts because their own words convincingly demonstrate so.) These opinions aren't worth refuting: they can be summarily dismissed, because they're based on junk. Or worse. That is not even good enough to be wrong. --- Enrico Fermi And grasping all those concepts is still not enough. They're merely the building blocks, the conceptual foundation, and they're related to each other, and to the larger general processes of climate, by complex mathematical relationships. THAT is the language in which the discussion is held, and anyone without the requisite level of mathematical literacy (e.g., multivariate stochastic processes) simply can't participate. They are as wholly illiterate in this field as I am in (to pick one of many) contemporary Italian poetry. I can't read Italian. I know very little about poetry. I have no idea what the hell is going on in that discipline. And anyone without a sufficiently advanced mathematical background has no idea what the hell is going on with climate change. The greatest shortcoming of the human race is man's inability to understand the exponential function. --- Albert A. Bartlett I don't entirely blame these people for their lack of knowledge; I could go on (and have gone on) at great length about the appalling lapses of educational systems that actually permit students to escape high school without -- at minimum -- achieving a satisfactory understanding of basic calculus and introductory physics. Anyone lacking these is clearly scientifically illiterate, and unfortunately, that currently covers the overwhelming majority of the population. But whatever the underlying cause(s), the reality is that these people are very ill-equipped to discern fabricated crap (e.g., creationism) from actual science (e.g., evolution) and we as a society end up spending an absurd amount of resources -- not on making actual forward progress in scientific research, but on preventing it from being dragged back into the Dark Ages by the superstitious, the ignorant, the exploitive, and the just plain crazy. (There are entire web sites devoted to this issue; one relevant to this discussion is climatedenial.org, which is written by someone who clearly has far more patience than I do.) What I blame them for is not *admitting* their lack of knowledge, for pretending that they actually understand the discipline when in fact all they're doing is mouthing talking points, repeating long-discredited assertions, or spouting gibberish. This is irresponsible behavior, and at least to me, highly annoying behavior. I view it with the same disdain that I would view a serious assertion that the earth is flat: it's a complete waste of everyone's time. So here's my advice: unless you [generic you] can -- right here, right now, without looking anything up -- state the three laws of thermodynamics, explain the carbon dioxide phase diagram, provide an example of a perturbation function, and solve a partial differential equation, then you should really stuff a sock in it when it comes to climate change, because you don't understand it. Not really. You're welcome to change that: in fact, that'd be be an entirely good thing, for you and for society in general. But it'll take a lot of time and effort. And until them, you should really be listening to and learning from the people who've already done that. This is precisely what common sense is for, to be jarred into uncommon sense. One of the chief services which mathematics has rendered the human race in the past century is to put 'common sense' where it belongs, on the topmost shelf next to the dusty canister labeled 'discarded nonsense.' --- Eric Temple Bell So here is the bottom line on global warming -- from someone who has actually read a decent chunk of the original research, not just the synopses published in the popular press or the propaganda spouted by the denialists: It's real. Our actions are driving it. Reality keeps turning out to be worse than the most pessimistic predictions. Reality keeps turning out to be getting worse faster than the most pessimistic predictions. It's not clear that even if we do everything we can do, that it'll be enough to slow it down. But it is clear that we should have done it yesterday. ---Rsk *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 4:25 AM, Rich Kulawiec <rsk_at_rockandwater.net> wrote: > ...and solve a partial differential equation... > I'm guessing that getting half-way through a differential equation does not qualify as "partial". Craig Jungers Moses Lake, WA www.nwkayaking.net *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Craig Jungers wrote: > On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 4:25 AM, Rich Kulawiec <rsk_at_rockandwater.net> wrote: > >> ...and solve a partial differential equation... >> > > I'm guessing that getting half-way through a differential equation does not > qualify as "partial". Sheesh! Here in Oregon we test out kids with A's and B's in high school algebra as needing remedial 8th grade arithmetic! Sign me: The dumb pot-boiling chemist who did some equations partially differently at one point in his life. Seriously: DiffEq done right is an amazingly insightful part of mathematics. Dashpots, flow regimes, oscillating chemical reactions, etc. A world opened up. -- Dave Kruger: *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
My son-in-law (remember Michael, the ChemE?) and I were discussing this just last week before he left for yet-another trip to China. We agreed that it's almost always easier to just iterate a solution using a programmable calculator than it is to solve an equation. That was the reason, back in the 70s, that I lusted for an HP35. Even at half-a-month's pay. I have no idea how to solve the problems of teaching math in the schools but they seemed to do it better in the 60s. But Michael is damned good at it, so go figure. Craig Jungers Moses Lake, WA www.nwkayaking.net On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 10:05 AM, Dave Kruger <kdruger_at_pacifier.com> wrote: > Craig Jungers wrote: > >> On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 4:25 AM, Rich Kulawiec <rsk_at_rockandwater.net> >> wrote: >> >> ...and solve a partial differential equation... >>> >>> >> I'm guessing that getting half-way through a differential equation does >> not >> qualify as "partial". >> > > Sheesh! Here in Oregon we test out kids with A's and B's in high school > algebra as needing remedial 8th grade arithmetic! > > Sign me: The dumb pot-boiling chemist who did some equations partially > differently at one point in his life. Seriously: DiffEq done right is an > amazingly insightful part of mathematics. Dashpots, flow regimes, > oscillating chemical reactions, etc. A world opened up. *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
On Wed, Dec 02, 2009 at 05:38:10AM -0800, Craig Jungers wrote: > I'm guessing that getting half-way through a differential equation does not > qualify as "partial". <chuckle> No more than flipping over and not recovering qualifies as a "roll". ;-) Of course, as luck would have it, about two hours after sending that off I found myself several sheets of paper deep into a diffeq which was offering significant resistance. ;-) Happily, application of sufficient coffee combined with a few dusted-off volumes from the top shelf pummeled it into submission a bit later. ---Rsk *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
On Thu, Dec 3, 2009 at 7:00 AM, Rich Kulawiec <rsk_at_rockandwater.net> wrote: > > <chuckle> No more than flipping over and not recovering qualifies > as a "roll". ;-) > I like to refer to those as a "partial roll" or, sometimes, "half Danish". :P Of course, as luck would have it, about two hours after sending that > off I found myself several sheets of paper deep into a diffeq which > was offering significant resistance. ;-) Happily, application of > sufficient coffee combined with a few dusted-off volumes from the > top shelf pummeled it into submission a bit later. > > It's nice to know that I'm not the only one who can solve "partial" differential equations. There aren't very many good math jokes... ever notice that? Craig Jungers Moses Lake, WA www.nwkayaking.net *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Craig Jungers wrote: > There aren't very many good math jokes... ever notice that? Fave T-shirt shows the formula for area of a circle, with a sentence below: "No! Pie are ROUND!" -- Dave Kruger (back in his test tube, now, thinking about paddling) Astoria, OR *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Craig Jungers wrote: > On Thu, Dec 3, 2009 at 7:00 AM, Rich Kulawiec <rsk_at_rockandwater.net> wrote: > >> <chuckle> No more than flipping over and not recovering qualifies >> as a "roll". ;-) >> > > I like to refer to those as a "partial roll" or, sometimes, "half Danish". > :P > > Of course, as luck would have it, about two hours after sending that >> off I found myself several sheets of paper deep into a diffeq which >> was offering significant resistance. ;-) Happily, application of >> sufficient coffee combined with a few dusted-off volumes from the >> top shelf pummeled it into submission a bit later. >> >> It's nice to know that I'm not the only one who can solve "partial" > differential equations. > > There aren't very many good math jokes... ever notice that? > > > Craig Jungers > Moses Lake, WA > www.nwkayaking.net How about the old chestnut: What's the difference between 31 Oct and 25 Dec? Maybe that's more of a computer nerd joke. (Hint, hint!) -- Darryl *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
That's one I've never heard... and I'm a computer nerd too... *and* used to run Honeywell 316 machines which had to be bootstrapped in octal. Made me smile though. :) Craig On Thu, Dec 3, 2009 at 7:50 AM, Darryl Johnson <Darryl.Johnson_at_sympatico.ca>wrote: > > How about the old chestnut: > > What's the difference between 31 Oct and 25 Dec? > > Maybe that's more of a computer nerd joke. (Hint, hint!) *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
There are there kinds of people in the world: those who can count and those who can't. Brad Quoting Craig Jungers <crjungers_at_gmail.com>: > There aren't very many good math jokes... ever notice that? > > Craig Jungers > Moses Lake, WA > www.nwkayaking.net *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Only 10 kinds of people who understand binary. That out of the way, if you have the opportunity to read Gretel Ehrlich's newest writings about her Nat Geo funded work in Greenland....please do. Even better if you have the chance to hear her read from/about her more recent travels there and what the loss of the Greenland ice cap means for all native peoples of the far north. Well, that and if you want to invest in waterfront property in 2099, get out your topos and look inland. *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
How many can spell? ;) Bradford R. Crain wrote: > There are there kinds of people in the world: those who can count > and those who can't. There are two kinds of people in the world, people who think there are two kinds of people and people who don't.--H.H Mencken -- Steve Cramer Athens, GA http://www.savvypaddler.com *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
--That's H. L. Mencken. . . . ;-) ;-) Best, Harvey --- On Thu, 12/3/09, Steve Cramer <cramersec_at_charter.net> wrote:How many can spell? ;) Bradford R. Crain wrote: > There are there kinds of people in the world: those who can count > and those who can't. There are two kinds of people in the world, people who think there are two kinds of people and people who don't.--H.H Mencken *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
That's called partial credit. BRC Quoting Rich Kulawiec <rsk_at_rockandwater.net>: > On Wed, Dec 02, 2009 at 05:38:10AM -0800, Craig Jungers wrote: >> I'm guessing that getting half-way through a differential equation does not >> qualify as "partial". *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Not that easy Craig, didn't you notice the Spiegel link... Global Warming has stalled for ten years, while others say 11? If any part of mother earth has cooled, it has balanced out any part that has warmed. It is simply local observance. Efforts by CRU, NASA and now New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NiWA) New Zealands answer to Britains Climate Research Unit, to tie is all together with tricks and fixes have failed. And to judge by this news alert by the *Climate Science Coalition of NZ*, * both* i*nstitutions share a similarly laissez-faire attitude to scientific accuracy.* http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017977/climategate-the-s candal-spreads-the-plot-thickens-the-shame-deepens/ Their efforts to connect the dots have failed, but you know that, because you have read the relevant emails from CRU, read about Hansen's misplaced decimal point (among other things) and understand that beneath all the fraud in AGW research is the truth..[?] Here are a few of the central parts of the AGW argument, or should I say the debate points *Glaciers in Himalayas not melting.* Other glacier may be melting, but it is no more proof than the Himalaya's http://www.theresilientearth.com/?q=content/himalayan-glaciers-not-melting *Tree Ring Data cosmic indicator, not weather?* http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_news/newsid_8311000/8311373.stm http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/09/29/yamal_scandal/ *CO2 is a leading indicator* of GW in dispute or *FALSE*. On the contrary, CO2 increases after the rise in temp on the order of 800 years http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm *Misleading Data gathered before it is hacked up at CRU, or NASA* or *NiWA* Many of the US weather data gathering stations are in poor location, next to incinerators, parking lots, cities grown up around them or other things that will cause the information gathered to be inaccurate http://www.surfacestations.org/ I WANT TO BE CLEAR, I do not doubt the naturally occurring global warming/cooling cycles, only a fool believes in a static global climate. The debate about AGW has never been held, even you choose to demean rather than discuss. There very clearly is much debatable data/science on this topic. Evidence presented by warmists have very serious flaws, to be polite. Man's activities cannot be tied to any temperature shift. If anything, AGW starts with an ideal static climate and tries to tie any changes to mankind. The gig is up now to deal with the politicians trying to shove this lie down our collective throats! *In all sincerity, I wish all my American list mates here on Paddlewise a very Happy Thanksgiving and a Merry Christmas, or what ever your winter timeto the entire list. May 2010 bring you some great paddling adventures.*observance may be Mike San Rafael, CA On Thu, Nov 26, 2009 at 9:01 AM, Craig Jungers <crjungers_at_gmail.com> wrote: > Mike and Paul, > > I suddenly realized that you two are iconoclasts and no amount of evidence > is going to sway you; further discussion is really a waste of bandwidth. > > But just to give Mike some data that his theory that in 2009 most of the > earth cooled... only the central part of the USA was cooler on average. Here > is the link to the story (although I'm pretty sure neither of you will > accept the data as anything other than true-believer propaganda): > http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/2009-08-10-july-climate-report_N.htm > CNN has finally gotten around to acknowledging this scandal, to date USA Today has not, All CNN and NY Times have done is make excuses for the scammers, much like you have. [demime 1.01e removed an attachment of type image/gif which had a name of 361.gif] *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Good responses from several Paddlewisers. I'd like to add just this: There are two anti-GW myths about global cooling. One is that a consensus of climatologists in the 1970s predicted global cooling. This is trotted out, I guess (George Will devoted nearly a third of a column to it early this year), to imply that you can't trust a science that changes its conclusions every 30 years or so. It's another ad hominem argument like the one Mike Euritt presented us about climatologists going along to get along. At best, this myth is based on a survey of news reports in the popular media of the era; at worst, it is based on cherry-picking those news reports. It does not appear to be based on the scientific literature. Last year the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society published the results of a survey of all the peer-reviewed papers from 1965 through 1979 they could find that dealt with climate in the next 100 years. Of those, 7 predicted global cooling, 20 were neutral, and 44 predicted global warming -- hardly a consensus for global cooling! You can download a pdf of the BAMS paper here: http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0477/89/9/pdf/i1520-0477-89-9-1325.pd f The other myth is that the earth has been cooling over the last ten years. It is obvious from looking at a graph of global temperatures that the rate of increase has decreased. It is not so obvious whether the trend is negative or positive without a statistical analysis. So AP reporter Seth Borenstein sent the warming data to four different statisticians and asked them to look for trends without telling them what the data represented. All four said there has been an upward trend during the 2000s: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091026/ap_on_sc/us_sci_global_cooling Enough said. Chuck Holst recovering at home from kidney surgery __________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 4642 (20091127) __________ The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus. http://www.eset.com *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
On Fri, Nov 27, 2009 at 10:31 AM, Chuck Holst <cholst_at_bitstream.net> wrote: > Good responses from several Paddlewisers. I'd like to add just this: > > Chuck... hope you're doing well. I was thinking about you just yesterday. I was being tongue-in-cheek with my remarks about thanking GW for finally making its way to winter. We don't need more heat here in the summer and when we had a cold snap in October I was complaining that the least GW could do would be to concentrate on the winter temps. Bringing those up would at least lower my heat bill and give me more days to paddle. One has to be careful what one says around here. :P Craig Jungers Moses Lake, WA www.nwkayaking.net (PS: It's 50F and sunny here today. My wife told me that she remembered going shopping on Black Friday a year ago and it was below freezing and snowing.) cj *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
"Dave Kruger" wrote: > Iconoclasm comes in various guises. Thanks Dave, Just when I was beginning to loose faith in my paddling cousins your voice rings clear and true above all the noise. I've been following this debate and the one on the Salish Sea on WCP and was growing rather despondent. Some mistakenly believe that our freedom of speech gives us permission to slander and libel anyone who does not support our position. Some think they can say anything be it merely uncivil, inflammatory or at worst racist or insulting then play the, "that's not what I meant card," and walk away scot free. Some cherry pick rhetoric the way you and I might pick cherries, and never stop to examine whether the cheery is green, ripe or rotten. Others seem so locked into their own perception loops it's as though there in no more room for knowledgeable input. Poor souls all. Personally I don't want to know everything, I do know something's, but mostly I know nothing. ;-) Gordin Warner It's tiresome and boorish. Gordin Warner *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
G'Day, Have to say that the thought of global warming really does impact my kayaking. I now frequently avoid car shuffles and hope for a wind change at midday to follow me home. I sometimes avoid gauntlets to avoid the greenhouse emissions from hospital treatment (but mostly coz I'm frankly scared). As for eating on the water it's strictly high carb' and healthy. All this might mean the kayaking experience has improved, but are such as I deluded? As the old, unhealthy, dangerous and time wasting ways exert their siren call I search the scientific literature for counter arguments to global warming, as any scientist, or kayaker yearning for a dangerous gauntlet or steak and chips should. All in the hope of discounting anthropogenic global warming. After all who wants it! Over the last twelve years there's been a change in the position of scientist/sceptics - I wonder how many people are aware of the growing concensus between 'sceptics' and climate change 'advocates' in some quite fundamental areas. Initially even the basic idea that atmospheric CO2 contained a significant level of man made CO2, and that it could make any difference to temperature, was disputed. These days most perhaps all of the sceptics who are scientists acknowledge the presence of man made CO2 and the direct physical relationship between changes in CO2 and temperature known as climate sensitivity. The current theoretical debate between sceptics and advocates seems to be principally about the value of climate sensitivity (between about 0.5 and 1.2 degrees C for a doubling in CO2-e); or the degree to which feedback systems might attenuate or amplify the change due to climate sensitivity. And of course these are crucial area's to get right, as without feedback the change would be about 1 degree C, with negative feedback it could be a fraction of a degree C and with positive feedback it could be many degrees C. Sometimes those who advocate minimal warming or even cooling will argue their point of view while presenting data that suggests the opposite. If like most scientists including sceptics, one accepts the idea of climate sensitivity, and compares changes in atmospheric CO2 with the average change in temperature since the industrial revolution of about 0.7degrees C, then theres a pretty good correlation. It might be slightly improved by introducing a small positive feedback. If one tends towards believing the lower limit of climate sensitivity as many sceptics do then a much greater degree of positive feedback has to be invoked and yet this is the very concept that is abhorrent to sceptical thinking as it relies so much on mdoelling. So I'm not getting much reassurance from reading even the best of the climate sceptic papers especially those that advocate the lower limit of climate sensitivity. Lets say that positive feedback is on the low side. Do one or two degrees C matter? Well by analogy think of the surf. A 1 metre 4 second period wave is fairly insignificant for a landing, but a 1 metre 15 second wave is starting to look serious. Likewise a local regional temperature rise of 1 or 2 degrees might be insignificant but worldwide could make a major difference to climate. As for values of change greater than a degree C due to positive feedback, we really have to wait many decades to see data that improves the statistical significance of observations and as Dave pointed, without the benefit of a control experiment. Can we afford to wait? What has all this got to do with kayaking? I don't really know, but if you ever come across one of these in the ocean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)#Float_design do treat it with respect as its one of 30,000 such measuring instruments that can submerge for ten days, dive to 2km, measure temperature and salinity on the way down and up, and then transmit the data to a satellite where it becomes available for any of us to read. Cute as a bugs ear and perhaps our best hope of accurate information on climate change from the oceans. But we're going to have to wait a long time - 7 years doesn't really cut it in the statistical signifcance stakes for this kind of study. All the best, PeterO (Who earns his living investigating ways to save energy and reduce carbon footprints, but who could just as easily earn a living finding alternatives to our vanishing oil reserves, or even better retire and go kayaking.) *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
I wrote: - >if you ever come across one of these in the ocean >http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)#Float_design <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)#Float_design> >do treat it with respect as its one of 30,000 such measuring instruments Sorry that should have been 3,000 not 30,000 - All the best, PeterO *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
-----Original Message----- >From: "Bradford R. Crain" <crainb_at_pdx.edu> > There are three kinds of people in the world: those who can count >and those who can't. > > Brad > Actually there are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary and those who don't... Joe P. *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
Well, today there is good news and bad news. The good news is that there isn't any bad news. The bad news is that there isn't any good news. I apologize for wasting your time. BRC Quoting "Joe P." <jpylka_at_earthlink.net>: > -----Original Message----- >> From: "Bradford R. Crain" <crainb_at_pdx.edu> >> There are three kinds of people in the world: those who can count >> and those who can't. >> >> Brad >> > Actually there are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who > understand binary and those who don't... > > Joe P. *************************************************************************** PaddleWise Paddling Mailing List - Any opinions or suggestions expressed here are solely those of the writer(s). You must assume the entire responsibility for reliance upon them. All postings copyright the author. Submissions: PaddleWise_at_PaddleWise.net Subscriptions: PaddleWise-request_at_PaddleWise.net Website: http://www.paddlewise.net/ ***************************************************************************
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