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From: Richard Culpeper <culpeper_at_tbaytel.net>
subject: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Sun, 07 Nov 1999 09:07:06 -0500
     "When he returned, I asked him why, over the years, the family had
so stubbornly refused to use any safety device, up to and including a
net."
     "You can't count on them," he shrugged.  "You can get hurt just as
badly with them as without them."
.... I asked if a net wouldn't have saved lives in Detroit, and he said,
"All seven of them might have gone down and been killed if they'd
believed they'd be saved by a net."  A net, he claimed, creates a false
sense of security and would almost certainly have become a tacit cause
for slippage in the family's meticulous performance standards.  "If the
net's not there, " he said, " you have the best reason of all for
staying on the wire."

>From interview of Rick Wallenda by Charles Wilkins in "The Circus at the
Edge of the Earth" ISBN 0-7710-8847-7.

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From: <MadPoodle_at_aol.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Sun, 7 Nov 1999 11:14:10 EST
And the sound of applause echoes through the net...

Thanks for a breath of fresh air!

Scott

way too safety conscious, or maybe not, but still just east of Bimini.....
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From: James Lofton <n5yyx_at_etsc.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Sun, 07 Nov 1999 18:37:23 -0800
I not only agree, but _kind_ of identify with this thinking, if in a much 
smaller way.

We live on a small 25 acre patch of heaven. One of the things we are 
blessed with seeing out here is snakes. Several kinds and most are 
harmless. We do have rattlesnakes tho. Few days go by with out seeing a 
snake of some kind. Today we had 2 rattlers and yesterday one was moved 
off of our back porch. It has been our policy to not kill any rattlers. 
Number one, it won't keep us from getting bit by the next one. 
Number two, I don't kill anything with out good cause.
Number three, they eat things I don't like in the house.
Number four, they were here before us.
Number five, most important, they cause us to PAY ATTENTION to what is 
out here. The wife was slow to this at first, but she agrees with me now.

Sure beats a cup of coffee to open your eyes in the morning on that early 
walk around the land!(I wear sandels and shorts too)

I might also add that not dressing for emersion in the winter also keeps 
me screamingly in tune to the conditions.

James



Richard Culpeper wrote:
> 
>      "When he returned, I asked him why, over the years, the family had
> so stubbornly refused to use any safety device, up to and including a
> net."
>      "You can't count on them," he shrugged.  "You can get hurt just as
> badly with them as without them."
> .... I asked if a net wouldn't have saved lives in Detroit, and he said,
> "All seven of them might have gone down and been killed if they'd
> believed they'd be saved by a net."  A net, he claimed, creates a false
> sense of security and would almost certainly have become a tacit cause
> for slippage in the family's meticulous performance standards.  "If the
> net's not there, " he said, " you have the best reason of all for
> staying on the wire."
> 
> >From interview of Rick Wallenda by Charles Wilkins in "The Circus at the
> Edge of the Earth" ISBN 0-7710-8847-7.
>

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From: <skimmer_at_mail.enter.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 11:32:39 4
> Subject:       Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis


> I might also add that not dressing for emersion in the winter also keeps 
> me screamingly in tune to the conditions.
> 
> James
=========================== 


Hi James,

Sounds like a great plan.   Are you recommending this for everyone?

Tell us about your rolling skills.

Is part of your plan to never capsize in cold water?

Chuck Sutherland
http://www.enter.net/~skimmer
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From: James Lofton <n5yyx_at_etsc.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 10:28:33 -0800
skimmer_at_mail.enter.net wrote:
> 
> > Subject:       Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
> 
> > I might also add that not dressing for emersion in the winter also keeps
> > me screamingly in tune to the conditions.
> >
> > James
> ===========================
> 
> Hi James,
> 
> Sounds like a great plan.   Are you recommending this for everyone?
>

Nope! Not even saying it is a great plan. It is the way I do it tho. I 
also have a very solid vision of the risks/consequinses, and so does my 
wife.

 
> Tell us about your rolling skills.
>

I paddle a folding kayak. Never tried to roll, and can't emagine why I 
would want to learn. I do work full time at keeping the inside of the 
boat and me dry tho.

 
> Is part of your plan to never capsize in cold water?
>

That's right! I did that many years ago(in janurary)with an empty boat. 
Didn't much care for it. Now days I carry lots of exspencive camera gear 
and ham radios that would likely be ruined if I flipped.

I agree that no one should go out nilly willy without a second though 
about the dangers, no matter what the season. I just figure(and most 
likely disagree)that the odds of me needing a drysuit, given the area I 
paddle and the conditions I choose to paddle in, is so low on the scale 
that I have decided to dress for the air temps and enjoy my life instead 
of the olterative sp?.

I do understand your concerns, and appreciate your thoughts.
I do wear a PFD full time, so in the event that I do get in over my head 
someday..., well, atleast they won't have to go diving for me, right.

James 
> Chuck Sutherland
> http://www.enter.net/~skimmer

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From: 735769 <735769_at_ican.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Tue, 9 Nov 1999 07:57:43 -0500
Chuck and James wrote;

(SOME SNIPS)

> > I might also add that not dressing for emersion in the winter also keeps
> > me screamingly in tune to the conditions.
> >
> > James
>
> Sounds like a great plan.   Are you recommending this for everyone?
>
> Tell us about your rolling skills.
>
> Is part of your plan to never capsize in cold water?
>
> Chuck Sutherland

Now that we have snow on the ground and ice on the creek I hope you will
forgive me for lapsing into a reminiscing mode prompted by this post.

Back when I first started paddling white water I did most of my whitewater
paddling during the spring run-off while snow still covered the ground and
ice lined the banks a this was the only time our local rivers had enough
water for paddling. In those days few people had wet suits and we wore wool.
Sort of like old time river drivers. (Richard Culpeper paddled the same
general area and he can correct my recollections where ever he feels he
should).

It seems to me that we had fewer capsizes in those days. In fact, I had my
first cold water whitewater capsize AFTER I bought my dry suit. We certainly
had fewer beginners paddling early in the season and used to list those
trips as expert trips. Now I think we list them as intermediate trips.

Of course, we could not roll our canoes (frequently tandem Grummans) so a
capsize had pretty severe consequences. I believe the knowledge of the
consequences led to far greater caution than that used by paddlers today who
have vastly superior cold weather clothing. Some would argue we had better
skills but I think we just had a different, more cautious approach.

Those who have paddled canoes in the open ocean in the far north also seem
to exercise considerable caution.  We never do plan to capsize in cold water
or even plan around it. I have always felt that this type of behavior
supported the theory of risk homeostasis. We recognized the dangers and
adjusted our risk level to suit. I short, we didn't paddle if we perceived a
risk of capsize. many times I can recall walking around a rapid that I had
run just because the water level had changed and I wasn't sure of the proper
line.

I believe you can see risk homeostasis at work every time you paddle
whitewater in the wilderness where loss of your boat and equipment, not to
mention injury, tempers one's judgment. White water one would normally run
closer to home gets walked around or lined down where the consequences
become more serious.

If we exclude the people who paddle for thrills or just to see how far they
can stretch their abilities then:

I certainly would not recommend that everyone stop wearing their cold
weather gear but I certainly would recommend that they paddle as if they
didn't.

I certainly would not recommend that people not learn to roll but I
certainly would recommend that the paddle like they couldn't.

I certainly would recommend that people plan not to capsize in cold water by
avoiding conditions that increase that probability.

To provide some idea of how I approach this kind of thing visit my
non-commercial web page
http://home.ican.net/~735769/safety.htm  that provides a way of estimating
the danger of a given paddling situation. I hope you find it helpful. I also
would appreciate your comments.

If you don't want to bother with the web page, here is a snippet from it.

"The safe paddler is a pessimist.  He knows that no safety equipment is
perfect. He only believes the worst in a weather report and then tempers it
with his own knowledge of local conditions. Most of all, he recognizes that
his perception of safety must be pessimistic to avoid exceeding his skills.
This may be the most frequent and fatal mistake of all - the overestimation
of ones safety based upon the assumption that safety gear or skills improve
safety.  Safety gear and rescues do improve your chances after you have done
something wrong but you are never safer than if you hadn't made the mistake
in the first place. As Derek Hutchinson so aptly said, "Knowing how to roll
is a sign of success, having to roll is a sign of failure." Safe paddling
means not having to use your rescue devices or skills."

Cheers,

John Winters
Redwing Designs
Web site address, http://home.ican.net/~735769

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From: Steve Cramer <cramer_at_coe.uga.edu>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Tue, 09 Nov 1999 11:30:20 -0500
735769 wrote:
> 
> Back when I first started paddling white water I did most of my whitewater
> paddling during the spring run-off while snow still covered the ground and
> ice lined the banks a this was the only time our local rivers had enough
> water for paddling. In those days few people had wet suits and we wore wool.
> 
> It seems to me that we had fewer capsizes in those days. In fact, I had my
> first cold water whitewater capsize AFTER I bought my dry suit. We certainly
> had fewer beginners paddling early in the season and used to list those
> trips as expert trips. Now I think we list them as intermediate trips.
> 
This certainly fits with my WW practices. In the summer, I am willing to
hop into holes and waves that might flip me, because the fun of playing
is not tempered by the risk of flipping into cold water. When I boat in
the winter, I am much less playful, and take more conservative lines
through rapids.

Steve
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From: <Bluecanoe2_at_aol.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Tue, 9 Nov 1999 17:38:09 EST
In a message dated 11/9/1999 8:36:46 AM Central Standard Time, 
735769_at_ican.net writes:

<< Some would argue we had better skills but I think we just had a different, 
more cautious approach.  >>


Admit it!  You were crazy!  Ans still are!  Nothing like cold aluminum on 
ones feet to give him the urge to stay upright!

May the Brumman whitewater modelsw still reign (overturned in the backyard).

Here is a pix of mine down on teh river.

        John & Susan LeBlanc
           O___           O___                      
            |\   /             |\   /
    (____|_\/________|_\/_____)
~~~~~~~/~~~~~~~~~/~~~~~~~~
~~~~~Bluecanoe2_at_aol.com~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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From: 735769 <735769_at_ican.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 07:21:00 -0500
----- Original Message -----
From: <Bluecanoe2_at_aol.com>
To: <PaddleWise_at_lists.intelenet.net>
Sent: Tuesday, November 09, 1999 5:38 PM
Subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis


>
> Admit it!  You were crazy!  Ans still are!  Nothing like cold aluminum on
> ones feet to give him the urge to stay upright!
>

Not so much the feet but the butt. One paddler friend says that the
aluminum Grumman seats have caused more hemorrhoids than bad diet.

Cheers,

John Winters
Redwing Designs
Web site address, http://home.ican.net/~735769



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From: Larry Bliven <foxhill_at_shore.intercom.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Tue, 9 Nov 1999 21:11:24 -0500
John Winters wrote

<snip>

>
> To provide some idea of how I approach this kind of thing visit my
> non-commercial web page
> http://home.ican.net/~735769/safety.htm  that provides a way of estimating
> the danger of a given paddling situation. I hope you find it helpful. I
also
> would appreciate your comments.
>
=======
John's notion that
*Rating Guide for Sea Kayaking Conditions*
can be formulated as
*Rating = Sum of risk values for each condition*
seems well thought out and useful to me.

However i propose that injection of kaos into the computation might make it
more likely to include the uncertainty that we often encounter.

risk value for kaos = standard deviation of all other *relevant* risk
values.
hence kaos risk increases when the relevant riks values are divergent...

Uncertain World Rating = John's Rating + Kaos risk value.
No change to the Rating Tables.

What do you think John?
yes to kaos value or
no to kaos value.

bye bye bliven




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From: <JSpinner_at_aol.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Tue, 9 Nov 1999 21:44:41 EST
In a message dated 11/9/99 5:51:47 PM, Bluecanoe2_at_aol.com writes:

<< May the Brumman whitewater modelsw still reign (overturned in the 
backyard).

Here is a pix of mine down on teh river. >>

    Ours, spelled with a G, is resting happily on the driveway. The 'yaks are 
sooooo much easier to load on the car. The dog is the only reason we heft her 
onto the racks at all. If not for that, she might become a planter in the 
back yard.
    It used to amaze me to go to people's homes and see little boats of 
different descriptions scattered around the yard. Now I spend part of my free 
time working on future plans for a rack system to hold the 4 already here and 
the planned additions. Mowing the grass always means major movement of boats. 
    Does the canoe go on top as an umbrella or at the bottom as to damn heavy 
to lift up? I just can't find that 18' of fence that doesn't already have 
plants established there. No garage and too many right angles to get into the 
basement. I hate to give up part of the patio but that may be where they go. 
I guess I could just make the patio bigger.
    We are house hunting. Just guess what the first thing I look for. Moving 
is easier than figuring this out where we live now.

Joan

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From: Doug Lloyd <dlloyd_at_bc.sympatico.ca>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 02:25:32 -0800
>John Winters wrote:
<snip> To provide some idea of how I 
>approach this kind of thing visit my non-commercial web page
>http://home.ican.net/~735769/safety.htm  that provides a way 
>of estimating the danger of a given paddling situation. I hope 
>you find it helpful. I also would appreciate your comments.

Then Larry replied:
>>John's notion that *Rating Guide for Sea Kayaking Conditions*
>>can be formulated as*Rating = Sum of risk values for each condition*
>>seems well thought out and useful to me. However i propose that
>>injection of kaos into the computation might make it
>>more likely to include the uncertainty that we often encounter <snip>.

Doug Lloyd comments:
I have a love/hate relationship with attempts at rating sea kayak
conditions. I love looking at these rating guides because anyone who has
the gumption to even try and achieve such a complicated task deserves
respect. I know of no one who has attempted this task, who is *not* in tune
with reality. They all have a lot of experience, and genuinely are trying
to help people determine a safe level for paddling. I love reviewing these
rating attempts because they provoke thought and introspection.

Rick Davies published one in Wavelenght called "Go/No Go". I have a friend
who has a valuable, yet unpublished scale, declined by Sea Kayaker
Magazine. Canoe & Kayak Magazine have one out. The Sea Kayak Association of
BC have one on their web page. I tried making one for my club but gave up.
There are others. The Tsunami Rangers have one out now, that their
Commander has applied to a recent incident which I forwarded to SK Mag.
Eric uses his "scale" to review the risk factors in the latest SK Mag. I
had some input into the rating system. (The systems I look at are all sea
kayak related).      

Having said all that, I hate them. The elements that comprise an
individual's or group's decision to paddle are so variable, so internal, so
experiential, so...so intangible I just don't see how one can delineate it
on paper. You want kaos? There are so many variables at work at any one
given moment, at least on the open sea; so many changeable elements, and so
many considerations and choices depending on what level of exposure and
risk you feel like taking that particular day or hour.

Everything these days is classified, codified, searchableized, digitized,
theorized, etc, etc. The ocean, lake, and river paddling realms are some of
the last bastions of honest adventure and challenge left, that are
reasonably accessible to "the people" and impossible to control. Packaging
it all up into a tidy little "gift" for public consumption, especially when
rating systems don't really work, ain't cool with me as a reliable index -
only as a promt. Of course, most rating system inventors always caveated
their scale with a note about its usefulness in the "real world".

I'd be the first to say I'd like a BA or MA in Ocean Kayaking Riskology
where everything is systematically broken down and taught; heck, most of my
paddling friends in Victoria would give good money to pay my way. But I
wouldn't go in the end. I'd just keep reading books on risk management,
studying other's mistakes, evaluating my own, rubbing shoulders with better
paddlers and keeping an open mind to what they have to teach. And most of
all, keep paddling on the water, where mother nature's pedagogically
preeminent presence continues to train and instruct if one's spirit is at
peace, one's heart is humble, one's mind engaged, one's body in tune, and
one's target for risk is hitting the bullseye because experience is being
gained in appropriate degrees commensurate with your objectives.

John has made a great attempt. And as always, it is done with cerebral
intensity in his usual indubitable manner. If it is flawed, it is only
because by nature, all rating systems are imperfect. It is one of the
better ones around, however. What do I worry about right now? I wonder how
many PW'rs even bothered to look up John's site to engage an intelligent
dialog within themselves. I wonder how many didn't even look at this thread
initially. How many people take risk management seriously?

What are _my_ greatest allies for survivability, if that is the name of the
game? Not rating systems, that's for sure. Try, in order, common sense,
constant paddler's  awareness, knowledge/understanding of your skill level,
knowledge/understanding of your environment, the ability to think
three-dimensionally/proactively, *complete* self-reliance,
preparation/training, good gear and back-up gear, to name a few. 

Another big one - protocol*. On a big lake or ocean with significant winds
and waves, open Canadian canoes are at high risk. On a wild river, solo WW
canoe or river kayaker  shouldn't be out there. Proper team-river kayaking
in a group? People still die, but it seems more "acceptable". Big surf?
Shouldn't be out alone. Ocean/lake solo kayaking or in a small group in
challenging conditions? Guess we are still deciding what is publically
acceptable or within "community standards". Best if you are able to rescue
yourself and take care of yourself in the aftermath, for the conditions you
are in or could get caught in. (The above presupposes experienced paddlers
in each category mentioned for average-for-them conditions). Better yet,
avoid trouble in the first place. Now how do you do that? I guess rating
systems do have a place!

*Protocol - the recent incident near South Portland, Maine, with the
bellbouy clinging kayaker: Alone, no back-up gear, short kayak, outflow
current/inflow winds (I assume), to my way of thinking, is out of tune with
acceptable, normal paddling protocol.
 
Anyway, I could expand on my above "survivability" rules, if there is
interest. It would be *my* "rating system".

Circuitously yours,

Doug Lloyd          
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From: Dave Kruger <dkruger_at_pacifier.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 05:46:06 -0800
Doug Lloyd wrote:

[monster snip]
> What are _my_ greatest allies for survivability, if that is the name of the
> game? Not rating systems, that's for sure. Try, in order, common sense,
> constant paddler's  awareness, knowledge/understanding of your skill level,
> knowledge/understanding of your environment, the ability to think
> three-dimensionally/proactively, *complete* self-reliance,
> preparation/training, good gear and back-up gear, to name a few.

Good list.  Worth noting is that "ability to think three-dimensionally ..." is
a difficult skill for some folks, and while the ability can be improved, a few
never reach a high level.  Example:  a former colleague, though well-motivated
to develop the ability to "read" topographical maps, **never** could do it,
despite repeated, intensive attempts.

[snip]
> Another big one - protocol[:] the recent incident near South Portland,
> Maine, with the bellbouy clinging kayaker: Alone, no back-up gear, shor
> kayak, outflow current/inflow winds (I assume), to my way of thinking, is
> out of tune with acceptable, normal paddling protocol.

Isn't "protocol" just risk homeostasis in different clothing?  Seems to me the
"protocol" we agree is the norm for surf kayaking (for example) is just the
kit of tools and skills which reduces the risk to some "herd-acceptable" level
-- the level which almost every kayak surfer feels is OK (excluding Tsunami
Ranger-types).

And, when we decide somebody was woefully unprepared, aren't we often just
projecting our own level of "acceptable risk" onto their behavior?

I used to have a group of friends whose comfort zone climbing was outlandishly
different from mine:  I would not ice climb couloirs which had lots of
stonefall.  Nor would I "free climb" without the protection of a rope on
high-angle rock.  They did, and felt comfortable with their "acceptable
risk."  Ahhhmmm ... sure wish I could ask them about that, but most of them
are dead now ... victims of their "acceptable level of risk."

-- 
Dave Kruger
Astoria, OR
not accepting much risk these days
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From: <rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 09:10:24 -0800
Doug Lloyd and John Winters have written some provocative posts about
risk and in the case of the latter, a well thought out webpage as well.

I looked at the recent Sea Kayaker scale prepared by the Tsunami Ranger
(and apparently helped a bit by Doug) and have seen others throughout
the years.  I agree with Doug that all of them are too complex and
really can't work for each individual or even enough individuals to make
them something to hold up as scales for determining "go, no go"
decisions.

I think this decision is in your guts.  It goes beyond where you are on
the skill/gear scale against the conditions scale.  Most of us know deep
inside when we are being stupid...the problem is listening to that inner
voice.  Most of have enough sense to resist peer pressure or to know
when someone who is leading a particular excursion is not making the
right decisions.  Resorting to a scale numbs that internal voice.

I am certain Doug, whose experience and skills tower over that of most
of us, has looked out on a day on which he could easily deal with the
conditions and made the decision to pack up and go back home or
somewhere else.

I think the main value in the scales such as that in Sea Kayaker is that
they enumerate all or most of the factors to consider in terms of skill,
gear and sea conditions.  And this is of particular help for those
starting out.  Such enumeration instills in you, for your inner voice to
listen to, things to consider subconsciously.  For example, a beginner
in his enthusiasm may not consider possible weather changes or winds
possibly being stronger around the corner than at the launch site.  So
he learns to listen to the full day's weather forecast with an ear for
any possible changes; and looks at a chart with a mind toward wind
direction and how land features may shelter or expose him/her throughout
the day.

In this sense the scales should be looked at as darn good general
checklists of factors to consider but not as a decision maker.  You make
the decision and put whatever weights you want on each point that your
gut tells you to do on that particular day.

Risk management is best served by careful route plotting.  Risk varies
by the particular stretch of water you are paddling and what winds and
currents and other such conditions are doing at the particular hours you
are tranversing the area.  Almost invariably when paddlers run into
trouble it is because of lack of attention and foresight regarding their
route as it will be affected by weather and other variables on that day.

By considering the route carefully, you can also pre-set for yourself
some tests for deciding whether to continue or not.  I can't count the
number of times that I have set off to go from Point A to D carefully
considering everything only to find that I wasn't feeling comfortable at
around Point B and just turned around to cut a planned 4 hour paddle to
a half hour.  The retreat-to-paddle-another-day decision went basically
this way.  "Hmmm, things are happening a bit more chaotically than I
thought they would be at this point when I was back home or at the
launch site.  Knowing what I know about the route ahead, conditions are
only going to get worse.  Why risk going on further?  I want to _enjoy_
this life activity, not _endure_ it.  I have nothing to prove. I can
always paddle another day."

There are no scales that can conduct that thought process for you.

ralph diaz
-- 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Ralph Diaz . . . Folding Kayaker newsletter
PO Box 0754, New York, NY 10024
Tel: 212-724-5069; E-mail: rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com
"Where's your sea kayak?"----"It's in the bag."
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From: James Lofton <n5yyx_at_etsc.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 10:03:57 -0800
rdiaz_at_ix.netcom.com wrote:
> 
> Doug Lloyd and John Winters have written some provocative posts about
> risk and in the case of the latter, a well thought out webpage as well.
> (snip)

I can only agree, and of course, thank you for your always thoughtful 
input too, Ralph.

I really can't add anything here, but hopefully think on what has been 
said and learn. Maybe re-learn, maybe re-think. 

I'm getting older and somewhere that line of knowledge we proudly add to 
each trip(hopefully), runs into anouther line that is being drawn(even if 
we don't acknowledge it), that is called age-induced-bad or slow 
judgement. These may not be the correct words, but maybe you get my 
drift. Getting too content with our well won skills might even enter into 
the equasion...?

(Ralph continues) 
>  Almost invariably when paddlers run into
> trouble it is because of lack of attention and foresight regarding their
> route as it will be affected by weather and other variables on that 
>day.(SNIP)

The lack of attention. Wonder how many people could undo a bad or fatal 
moment, if only they had paid attention.? It's amazing how darned focused 
one can get when facing possible death. Such a shame if you loose.

I won't tell the whole story here, but once I was enjoying a perfect day 
at the end of a long lake(30+ miles fetch). There was ZERO wind and in 
about 30 minents sp? I would be off the lake and back onto the river. 
Just at the middle of a no turning back point on the cross'n, a ripple 
"rushed" under my boat, coming from the far end of the lake. It was 
followed by a second.
I will guess that there is several of you reading this that knows what 
was about to happen to my "perfect", head up my butt day.

If you havn't read it before, try to find a copy of the short story by 
Jack London, called "To build a fire". It is a pretty darn good story of 
how complacity sp? in what we think we know, can really ruin a day.

James

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From: Shawn W. Baker <baker_at_montana.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 13:09:01 -0700
Dave Kruger wrote:
> And, when we decide somebody was woefully unprepared, aren't we often just
> projecting our own level of "acceptable risk" onto their behavior?

I disagree--I don't think knowing a person's own acceptable risk level
is necessary to determine that they were unprepared.  I think if I go
out and have an accident, or require a rescue, I've been woefully
unprepared, no matter what someone else's "acceptable risk" quotient is,
and how they view the conditions I was in.  It may be below someone like
Doug Lloyd's threshold of acceptable risk, or way above that of a true
novice, but the fact would remain, that I was still unprepared.

I'll use Doug's "allies for survivability" as an example: Try, in order,
common 
sense, constant paddler's  awareness, knowledge/understanding of your
skill level,
knowledge/understanding of your environment, the ability to think 
three-dimensionally/proactively, *complete* self-reliance,
preparation/training, good gear and back-up gear, to name a few.

If my common sense and knowledge of my skills fail and I go out in
conditions way over my head, I was still partly unprepared, even if I
end up relying on my gear or back-up gear to get my butt safely back to
the beach.  Your own acceptable risk, though, is partly based on how
prepared you are.

I think I judged the Maine kayaker's level of unpreparedness and his
behavior on their own merits and not based on my acceptable risk.

> I used to have a group of friends whose comfort zone climbing was outlandishly
> different from mine:  I would not ice climb couloirs which had lots of
> stonefall.  Nor would I "free climb" without the protection of a rope on
> high-angle rock.  They did, and felt comfortable with their "acceptable
> risk."  Ahhhmmm ... sure wish I could ask them about that, but most of them
> are dead now ... victims of their "acceptable level of risk."

That's too bad, Dave.  It's kind of a grim consolation to say, "You were
smart and survived" but in hindsight, you can really see that your
acceptable level of risk was truly acceptable.

Back to the original topic of risk homeostasis, I recently cut a trip
short because I forgot some of my safety equipment at home, namely,
flares and mirror.  I was going to cross a 4-mile wide bay on Flathead
lake.  Water temperature was about 58*, air 65*, sunny, 5 mph breeze,
and no serious weather forecast for at least a week.  There was maybe 6"
of chop, and barely any motorboat traffic.  I turned back and didn't do
the crossing, because I didn't have my backup safety equipment.  I
didn't need it, but there was that one-in-a-million chance I might, and
I'd be unable to summon help if I'd needed it.  Am I guilty of risk
homeostasis, (gear would have made me feel "safer") or did I just make a
prudent decision?

Shawn

-- 
Shawn W. Baker          0                                    46°53'N
© 1999            ____©/______                              114°06'W
~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^\  ,/      /~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^
baker_at_montana.com    0        http://www.missoulaconcrete.com/shawn/
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From: 735769 <735769_at_ican.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 07:12:21 -0500
Larry wrote;

(SNIP)

>
> However i propose that injection of kaos into the computation might make
it
> more likely to include the uncertainty that we often encounter.
>
> risk value for kaos = standard deviation of all other *relevant* risk
> values.
> hence kaos risk increases when the relevant riks values are divergent...
>
> Uncertain World Rating = John's Rating + Kaos risk value.
> No change to the Rating Tables.

Great idea if I can figure out how to do it using my rotten math skills.
Does anyone out there remember the classic chaos type of formula? Is it  n =
n ^(1-n) or is it x --> x2 + c? Maybe neither one.

One problem. It may breed so much paranoia and uncertainty that no one will
ever paddle again. HMMM Maybe not a problem at all. :)

Doug Lloyd wrote a well thought out commentary on rating systems that I
confess to agreeing with even though I developed a rating system. In defense
of rating systems  I would say that one hopes they will force people with
limited backjgrounds to think first and act later. I have no doubt that some
damned fool will take a rating system, add it up and decide evertthing is
safe and then go drown. The consolation derives from the suspicion he would
have drowned anyway.

My hope was that people would read it, recognise the complexity of paddling
risk, and try to learn more. Hopefully they would learn enough to not need
the system.

One of the interesting aspects of systems came to light when I read Eric
Soare's system in Sea Kayaker. Eric's system increased the rating by one
point for every mile per hour increase in wind speed when the forces
involved increase geometrically (wind force, increases with the square of
velocity).  I wonder if most people don't perceive these factors in a linear
manner which results in under estimating the risk.

To give some idea of the complexity consider swim distance. eric uses 1
point for every 100 meters and yet 100 meters might as well be 1000 meters
if you can't swim. I mention this not as critcism of Eric's system but to
show just how difficult coming up with any kind of rating system and to show
(as Doug pointed out) their weaknesses. Sometimes when I look at mine I want
to chuck it but I keep tweaking it in hopes it will actually benefit some
one some day.

Cheers,

John Winters
Redwing Designs
Web site address, http://home.ican.net/~735769



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From: Larry Bliven <foxhill_at_shore.intercom.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 21:21:38 -0500
Kaos Term:

>>Injection of kaos into the computation might make  it
>> more likely to include the uncertainty that we often encounter.

> >risk value for kaos = standard deviation of all other *relevant* risk
values.
 >>hence kaos risk increases when the relevant riks values are divergent...

> >Uncertain World Rating = John's Rating + Kaos risk value.
 >>No change to the Rating Tables.

========

Snipped from John's reply:

>Great idea if I can figure out how to do it using my rotten math skills.
 >Does anyone out there remember the classic chaos type of formula?
>Is it  n = n ^(1-n) or is it x --> x2 + c? Maybe neither one.

=============

John,

my math can be weak too, but sometimes words work.
insight into how chaos enters into *predicting* sea kayaking risk at some
*future* time from *present* conditions can be obtained by reading

http://order.ph.utexas.edu/chaos/index.html

i've gotten side tracked on chaotic music,
http://www.industrialstreet.com/chaos/Music.asp
so i haven't gotten to mathimatical formulation of chaos for sea kayaking.
maybe there's a math enriched paddler who know kaos already... any help out
there?

by the way, one of Prof Willard Pierson's  (NYU) claims to fame was
introducing statistical methods into wave analaysis... as in wave spectra.
Maybe it's time for some sea kayakers to accept kaos as a way of envisioning
how some kayaking events unfold...

bye bye bliven

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From: Doug Lloyd <dlloyd_at_bc.sympatico.ca>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 00:53:24 -0800
>Doug Lloyd wrote:
>
>[monster snip]
>> What are _my_ greatest allies for survivability, if that is the name of the
>> game? Not rating systems, that's for sure. Try, in order, common sense,
>> constant paddler's  awareness, knowledge/understanding of your skill level,
>> knowledge/understanding of your environment, the ability to think
>> three-dimensionally/proactively, *complete* self-reliance,
>> preparation/training, good gear and back-up gear, to name a few.

Dave replied:
>Good list.  Worth noting is that "ability to think three-dimensionally
..." is
>a difficult skill for some folks, and while the ability can be improved, a
few
>never reach a high level.  Example:  a former colleague, though
well-motivated
>to develop the ability to "read" topographical maps, **never** could do it,
>despite repeated, intensive attempts.

Doug says:
Those who have three-dimensional thinking abilities (3-DT) when operating
in a moderate to high risk environment have the edge. This type of thinking
skill is probably understood by some of the navy pilot types we have in our
PW group. Fighter pilots are dead without it. The game of chess develops
3-DT. Chess players perhaps go to extremes at the higher levels, often
cognating for hours over a single move (unless under a time limit). Chess
is a game of calculations and of complex multiple-mental permutations.

I like sea kayaking on the open ocean, on multi-day trips where you develop
3-DT. Like chess, the next "move" of mother nature may force you to
recalculate all your options. Route planing, as Ralph noted recently, taxes
your 3-DT -- or moreover, tests the results in real time soon enough. Dave
suggests correctly that while one's 3-DT ability can be improved, some
individuals don't reach a high level. I find this can be generally true,
but I also have seen some kayakers who have low to average intelligence
increase their cognition potential as they take on higher risk activity.
I've also seen intelligent, doctoral level individuals who just didn't have
a clue, finally getting nicked by the high risk's razor edge. Bloody
messes, they was. 

As part of our training curriculum at my local club, we developed 3-DT
exercises for new paddlers, using real life examples from the book "Deep
Trouble", breaking down the various factors, and then seeing if the
students could predict outcomes. While some of the executive felt we should
push hard skills, I desperately pleaded that we incorporate the above type
of exercises too. To me, it was mission critical. I lost out in the end,
and hard skills won the day.   

I said originally:
>[snip]
>> Another big one - protocol[:] the recent incident near South Portland,
>> Maine, with the bellbouy clinging kayaker: Alone, no back-up gear, shor
>> kayak, outflow current/inflow winds (I assume), to my way of thinking, is
>> out of tune with acceptable, normal paddling protocol.

Dave replied:
>Isn't "protocol" just risk homeostasis in different clothing?  Seems to me
the
>"protocol" we agree is the norm for surf kayaking (for example) is just the
>kit of tools and skills which reduces the risk to some "herd-acceptable"
level
>-- the level which almost every kayak surfer feels is OK (excluding Tsunami
>Ranger-types).
>
Doug"
Well, yeah. Its all a matter of degree. I was just concerned because Dave
said in an earlier post about bellboy (spelling intentional), not to be too
hard on the guy, that Dave could see himself accidently getting himself in
to a similar situation. No, I don't think so. This guy was way over the
edge for normal. I take a lot of risks, but I do it with my eyes wide open
(well, most of the time). I don't have a rivers edge to crawl up too and
get back in the kayak. To me, this guy just didn't fit into any normal
category. He has a right to be out there. I'm not opposed to that.
Especially not me. I just felt he was a loose cannon in a sport where we
all take aim at certain activities and levels of risk; that most of us know
what kind of skill and equipment we need to  have to undertake said
activity in a manner commensurate with typical customs.

Dave:  
>And, when we decide somebody was woefully unprepared, aren't we often just
>projecting our own level of "acceptable risk" onto their behavior?

Doug:
Apples and oranges.

Dave:
>I used to have a group of friends whose comfort zone climbing was
outlandishly
>different from mine:  I would not ice climb couloirs which had lots of
>stonefall.  Nor would I "free climb" without the protection of a rope on
>high-angle rock.  They did, and felt comfortable with their "acceptable
>risk."  Ahhhmmm ... sure wish I could ask them about that, but most of them
>are dead now ... victims of their "acceptable level of risk."

Doug:
I've climbed too, in the Purcels, and part way up Mt Assiniboine. I've done
"Australian" repelling down some steep faces (repelling backwards, face out
from the wall). I always knew when I was doing something dumb. I knew I
would turn into one of those mountain statistics. I also gave it all up as
too dangerous generally -- Marmots biting your hands at four in the
frigging morning as you ascend from base camp, falling rock, unstable ice
bridges. I find water a lot softer, seals a lot friendlier, and weather
offering a lot more windows of opportunity if you pick the right time of year.

Despite my notoriety for rough water paddling, I'm in the game for the
long-haul. When the level of risk exceeds that parameter, I usually back
off, but the reasons are different than why most would back-off. I've had
many days where I refuse to paddle, even though it wasn't that bad. I knew
my attitude was bad that day - I was feeling *too* invincible, and knew
there was a potential for trouble, so didn't want to tempt fate when
conditions deteriorated. There are few conditions I won't paddle in, and
that is the problem. That's when I back off - when I most *want* to go out
and challenge nature. On our April 99 Storm Island rescue trip, one buddy
went hypothermic in the gale, the other was exhausted and falling asleep. I
was just starting to have fun. See what I mean? The next day, I felt like I
could conquer the world. I took the rest of the year off paddling. (BTW,
the Storm Island report is on hold with SK Magazine due to one of the
individuals still getting over the trauma and stigma). Well, I hope this
all makes sense and has some relevance to someone. Sounding too
self-important -- gotta go!

BC'in Ya
Doug Lloyd   

>-- 
>Dave Kruger
>Astoria, OR
>not accepting much risk these days
>
>
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From: Joan Spinner <JSpinner_at_agu.org>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 13:20:39 -0500
<<Doug"
Well, yeah. Its all a matter of degree. I was just concerned because Dave
said in an earlier post about bellboy (spelling intentional), not to be too
hard on the guy, that Dave could see himself accidently getting himself in
to a similar situation. No, I don't think so. This guy was way over the
edge for normal. I take a lot of risks, but I do it with my eyes wide open
(well, most of the time). I don't have a rivers edge to crawl up too and
get back in the kayak. To me, this guy just didn't fit into any normal
category. He has a right to be out there. I'm not opposed to that.
Especially not me. I just felt he was a loose cannon in a sport where we
all take aim at certain activities and levels of risk; that most of us know
what kind of skill and equipment we need to  have to undertake said
activity in a manner commensurate with typical customs.>>

    I know I'm REALLY new to kayaking, like about 8 months, but I'm getting a bit
lost in the logic. I did read the piece and I didn't see where it gave enough
details to come to a lot of the conclusions I'm reading. I'm not suggesting that
he didn't make mistakes that could have been avoided but why are you calling him,
" a loose cannon in a sport where we all take aim at certain activities and levels
of risk?" For me, part of being new is not knowing all the questions and not
knowing all the factors when they look you in the face. What am I missing here? I
still don't know exactly why he couldn't get back in his boat. For someone with
his exposure to the sport this seems exceptionally weird. Was it a lack of skills
or was he hurt or what? I agree he made a number of mistakes but the one that
seems to be picked on most is that he went out at all. Am I misreading this?
    The longer this thread runs the more confused I am. I am gaining no clarity on
the issue thought I am seeing a lot of opinions. It could be I'm making this issue
more complicated than it is but it looks REAL complicated from my computer. I've
read the SK article on risk assessment and all the postings here. I still don't
get why some of you are so harsh in you evaluation. It may be justified but so far
I have not heard a logical argument for saying, "This guy was way over the edge
for normal. "
    In real simple, short thoughts, can someone explain this to me, please?

Joan

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From: 735769 <735769_at_ican.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 07:10:57 -0500
Shawn wrote;

(SNIP)

Back to the original topic of risk homeostasis, I recently cut a trip
short because I forgot some of my safety equipment at home, namely,
flares and mirror.  I was going to cross a 4-mile wide bay on Flathead
lake.  Water temperature was about 58*, air 65*, sunny, 5 mph breeze,
and no serious weather forecast for at least a week.  There was maybe 6"
of chop, and barely any motorboat traffic.  I turned back and didn't do
the crossing, because I didn't have my backup safety equipment.  I
didn't need it, but there was that one-in-a-million chance I might, and
I'd be unable to summon help if I'd needed it.  Am I guilty of risk
homeostasis, (gear would have made me feel "safer") or did I just make a
prudent decision?


Risk homeostasis is not something that one is "guilty of". Risk homeostasis
presents a theory of how people respond to risk (for better or worse). Your
not going on the trip demonstrates your acceptable level of risk. If you had
gone, that too would have demonstrated your acceptable level of risk. Either
way your actions reflect risk homeostasis at work. Risk homeostasis theory
seeks to explain how we respond to our environment and risks.

Think of it as working like a thermostat. The thermostat turns on the heat
when the temperature gets below a certain level and turns it off when it
gets up to a certain level. Individuals have a  comfortable level of
acceptable risk and when it begins to exceed that level they modify their
behavior accordingly. If the perceived risk does not reach their comfort
level they will accept additional risk.

The interesting aspect of risk homeostasis surfaces when one examines the
perception of risk.

Your flares and mirror had the potential of improving your lot after things
went wrong but would not protect you from an accident. Your decision not to
go eliminated any chance of capsize and proactively improved your safety.

The problem for most of us has to do with not knowing with any precision the
dangers we face.
For example, once we capsize our level of risk increases because we may not
have a fool proof roll (does anyone?).   If our roll fails and we bail out
of the boat our risk increases again because we now have increased danger of
separation from the boat. If our paddle float rescue (or other assisted
rescue) attempt fails and we get separated from the boat then our level of
risk increases again.

Of course, there are lots of variables and every time something goes wrong
things look darker but by how much? Does a failed roll double your risk,
Triple it? I don't know how one could quantify such things. How do we factor
in fear, shock, etc. We can avoid all risk but that certainly reduces one's
fun.

If we set our acceptable level of risk at a one that provides the proper
balance of safety VS risk we have lots of good safe fun. If we get it wrong
we either get bored or drown.

Cheers,

John Winters
Redwing Designs
Web site address, http://home.ican.net/~735769







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From: Dave Flory <daflory_at_pacbell.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 07:45:39 -0800
on 11/11/99 4:10 AM, 735769 at 735769_at_ican.net wrote:

> We can avoid all risk but that certainly reduces one's
> fun.
> 
> If we set our acceptable level of risk at a one that provides the proper
> balance of safety VS risk we have lots of good safe fun. If we get it wrong
> we either get bored or drown.

John gets it! We do the things we do for the thrill of cheating Death thru'
personal skill and knowledge. This applies to all kinds of things from sky
diving, thru' skiing, SCUBA, motorcycling, rollerblading, bicycling, etc.
Anybody here remember the FEAR of the very first time you were on a bicycle?
Those of us with good sense and good survival instincts maximize knowledge
and skills. We also use safety equipment to minimize the damage when the
knowledge and skills are not sufficient to the moment. But we do this stuff
for the adrenaline rush of that moment of fear, and the feeling of
competence that comes with doing the activity successfully.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Dave Flory, San Jose, CA.     daflory_at_pacbell.net
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Speak softly and study Aikido, then you won't need a big stick.  ©1999
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

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From: <lenonm_at_milwaukee.tec.wi.us>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 09:29:46 -0600 (CST)
<John Winters wrote:>
>
>Great idea if I can figure out how to do it using my rotten math skills.
>Does anyone out there remember the classic chaos type of formula? Is it  n =
>n ^(1-n) or is it x --> x2 + c? Maybe neither one.
>
>One problem. It may breed so much paranoia and uncertainty that no one will
>ever paddle again. HMMM Maybe not a problem at all. :)

That's it! By George I think he's got it! I've think you've stumbled onto
the Final Solution, John!

We had (1) risk homeostasis, which alone proved unsatisfying to some; too
narrow a view perhaps. Then (2) chaos was added; an excellent addition,
expanding the definition and gaining more supporters. We're making real
progress, I thought. And NOW(!) (3) you've added the third and final
element: Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. FUD! The final missing link! (I'm
sure we can soon agree on measuring chaos and FUD.)

It's THREE, don't you see, a triangle, a holy trinity...  a pyramid even,
some will think. For surely the three-element FUD factor gives it overall a
three dimensional structure, don't you think? This could bring the last of
the heathen unbelievers around.

My God, I'm so excited!  ;-)

-Bruce
who's been enjoying this immensely, and who's only partly kidding about the
FUD factor. If FUD's a factor on any given day, it could actually be THE
deciding factor in the accident that came to pass. It's probably a poor
strategy to push one's personal envelope, whatever that may mean to one,
when FUD has awakened. Go paddle somewhere else for the day, and put FUD
back to sleep again.


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From: Jackie Fenton <jackie_at_intelenet.net>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 11:48:17 -0800 (PST)
> From: Joan Spinner <JSpinner_at_agu.org>
<snip>
>     The longer this thread runs the more confused I am. I am gaining 
> no clarity on the issue thought I am seeing a lot of opinions. It could 
> be I'm making this issue more complicated than it is but it looks REAL 
> complicated from my computer. I've read the SK article on risk assessment 
> and all the postings here. I still don't get why some of you are so harsh in 
> you evaluation. It may be justified but so far I have not heard a logical 
> argument for saying, "This guy was way over the edge for normal. "
>     In real simple, short thoughts, can someone explain this to me, please?


I'm somewhat confused, also.  I thought the discussion involved two different
incidents.  For those that want to read the newspaper report again, it has
been moved to

http://www.portland.com/frnews/kayak1105.shtml

He did take a lot of precautions where a lot of folks do not that could
possibly have saved his life (the float plan, pfd, and wearing a wetsuit for
cold water conditions spring to mind).  Also, I'm not clear on how rough the 
seas were in which he first started out.  There was mention of 6 to 8 foot
seas but I assumed that to mean swells which are not difficult to paddle
(though lots of fun :-)  I suspect conditions worsened for which he was not
prepared, but I'm not sure I would describe him as a loose cannon.

Just my .02 

Cheers,

Jackie

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From: Doug Lloyd <dlloyd_at_bc.sympatico.ca>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 12:18:20 -0800
Joan wrote:
>    I know I'm REALLY new to kayaking, like about 8 months, but I'm
getting a bit
>lost in the logic. I did read the piece and I didn't see where it gave enough
>details to come to a lot of the conclusions I'm reading.

Joan, et al:

Lost in the logic, or is that lost in the *lack* of logic? Maybe it is just
the way I explain things. As far as conclusions from the details we were
provided with, you are correct. Subjective opinions rendered on the
incident are assumptive at best. I was hoping Dr Sutherland might get back
to me about calling the fellow up who spent the night on the bellbouy, so
we could find out the details that the media weren't interested in (type of
kayak, type of paddling normally done, etc), but Chuck seems to have flown
the coupe.    

> I'm not suggesting that
>he didn't make mistakes that could have been avoided but why are you
calling him,
>" a loose cannon in a sport where we all take aim at certain activities
and levels
>of risk?" For me, part of being new is not knowing all the questions and not
>knowing all the factors when they look you in the face. What am I missing
here? I
>still don't know exactly why he couldn't get back in his boat. For someone
with
>his exposure to the sport this seems exceptionally weird. Was it a lack of
skills
>or was he hurt or what? I agree he made a number of mistakes but the one that
>seems to be picked on most is that he went out at all. Am I misreading this?

Yes. You are misreading this from my point of view. He can go out, no
problemo. But, don't you think given the conditions present and what the
consequences could be of coming out of the kayak, he should have been with
another paddler or better prepared or better equipped. The Coast Guard,
universally, don't usually mind going out to help mariners in distress -
that is what they get paid to do, and that is what they are there for, and
they know that going out on the ocean is always a calculated risk where
misscalculations are made . But, again, universally, the Coast Guard very
much dislike evening and night searches. It puts there men more at risk,
and when the object of their search has no way of signaling the
authorities, it is very frustrating.
 
>    The longer this thread runs the more confused I am. I am gaining no
clarity on
>the issue thought I am seeing a lot of opinions. It could be I'm making
this issue
>more complicated than it is but it looks REAL complicated from my
computer. I've
>read the SK article on risk assessment and all the postings here. I still
don't
>get why some of you are so harsh in you evaluation. It may be justified
but so far
>I have not heard a logical argument for saying, "This guy was way over the
edge
>for normal. "
>    In real simple, short thoughts, can someone explain this to me, please?

I suggest you go to the recent thread with Ralph (he writes with more
clarity than anyone on this list, I'd say). The issue came up about
acceptable behavior, if I can use that term. We have a helmet law here in
BC, for both bicycles and motor bikes. I work in the medical field -
government funded medicare - and I think it is the best thing that ever
happened (sorry James). When I see a bicyclist go by at night, without a
helmet, without a light, I call them loose cannons. When I see a roller
bladder without protective equipment threading through traffic, the same
response is invoked. And when I hear of a paddler out alone is nasty
condition without the normal requisite gear, experience, training, and
immediate assistance of fellow paddlers, the same response is invoked. If
you "don't get it" fine, you don't have to. But please try and understand
my point of view, as I don't just post off the top of my head. 

I'm not sure what your level of understanding is with the various kayak
pursuits. In river kayaking, we are not loaded down with self sufficient
rescue equipment. There is a car at the put-in and the take-out. You have
friends along with you. If you bail in average conditions, you get to shore
and get back in - no paddle floats, no re-enter and rolls, no VHF radios
calling for help. Surfing, same thing. Minimum gear, lee shore beach
waiting for you. Now switch to an  estuarian river mouth. Current flowing
out to sea, waves and wind present, paddler has no reliable re-entry, no
back-up equipment, no buddies, and no distress equipment. What is he? A
minimalist river paddler out over his head? A sea kayaker under-equipped
and undertrained, and unaware of how dangerous and predisposed to disaster
the situation was? I don't have the all the answers, Joan. But something
doesn't jive with the situation, that's all. Am I permitted to say that? If
not, I will shut-up. I'm happy to have a dialogue with myself. And maybe I
will even switch the term "loose cannon" to "an unknown paddler profile"
that to me doesn't fit into an "acceptable" acceptable risk category. That
ain't confusing to me, anyway.

BC'in Ya
Doug Lloyd
     

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From: Gabriel L Romeu <romeug_at_erols.com>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 20:20:00 -0500
> When I see a roller
> bladder without protective equipment threading through traffic, the same
> response is invoked.

Let us use the correct term 'in-line skater' so we don't have such
mistakes;->

Just as a sidenote, in my skating experience beginners and advanced were
safely equiped.  It was the intermediate that negelected wearing safey
gear.  I would never skate without a helmet and wristguards, tore a
helmet up in one crash- did break (or rebreak from the first)ribs a few
times.

Seems like a little (or very little) knowledge is a very bad thing. 
Maybe there should be a factor for this- as I get more experienced, I
see more potential for mishap, a shift from the fear factor.
-- 
:                         :
Gabriel L Romeu                                                      :
http://studiofurniture.com  furniture from the workshop               :
http://members.xoom.com/gabrielR  life as a tourist, daily
journal         :
http://users.aol.com/romeugp  paintings, photographs, etchings, objects


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From: Doug Lloyd <dlloyd_at_bc.sympatico.ca>
subject: Re: [Paddlewise] Risk Homeowhatsis
Date: Fri, 12 Nov 1999 21:51:28 -0800
Regarding my recent post/reply to Joan Spinner:

Sorry if I came across kind of terse. I wasn't meaning to. I just get upset
when people do dumb things kayaking - when it is so blatantly and patently
obvious that what they were attempting to do would have been so much safer
and more fun with a little thought and attendant conformity to sport
standards. I should have maybe called the young kayaker who spent the night
on the bellbouy as "atypical" rather than "a loose cannon".

I also believe sea kayaking and white water kayaking and surf kayaking all
compliment each other. Some of the WW boys (and gals!) around here do some
incredible things out in the tidal rapids with their WW kayaks. We have
genuine 15 foot standing waves just off Victoria during New Moon tides
combined with a big storm. They play a hybrid game, often carrying some sea
kayak type gear and even spare paddles (CG requirement) in their short WW
kayaks. One fellow even tows his WW boat out to Trial Island behind hit sea
kayak, then goes out in his WW boat to have some solo fun. The sea kayak
makes it a lot easier to get out there in a big blow.

I do a lot of rough water stuff, solo, in my sea kayak, but carry more
kinds of back-up self-rescue equipment than you can buy in any one given
outdoors store. I tether ALL my gear, including me. I practice paddling my
kayak fully swamped in storm conditions, and practice re-entry and rolls
all winter long. In summer, I often spend a whole days on consecutive
weekends at the lake, just doing different kinds of self rescues. I do use
pools, but I feel they foster a false sense of control - but necessary in
frozen winter areas where you want to keep tuned up. I'm not saying this
for any self-aggrandizement. I only want to clearly indicate that if you
are going to go out solo in rough stuff, you better put in the training,
and then overtrain for the chaos factor. I can't tell anyone what their
list of essential gear should be. I know what I want. And I know you don't
take more chances just because you have extra gear. But I go out anyway,
can't control myself some years, so I carry what I believe  is responsible
for me to carry. I'd rather be hooked on tide races and storm paddling, and
blow away some time on Paddlewise at night, than some of the other
addictions in life - not to mention the soul-robbing garbage some people
are into on the internet. 

Anyway, I thank you all for listening to me rant some days. I've put a lot
of miles on my kayak in a huge variety of situations and circumstances,
some life and death, some profound and mysteriously beautiful. And still,
with all that paddling experience, I learn an incredible amount off this
list every week. "Symposium" means to learn. PW is a none-stop symposium.
Thanks!

BC'in Ya
Doug Lloyd   
 
At 12:18 PM 11/11/99 -0800, you wrote:
>Joan wrote:
>>    I know I'm REALLY new to kayaking, like about 8 months, but I'm
>getting a bit
>>lost in the logic. I did read the piece and I didn't see where it gave
enough
>>details to come to a lot of the conclusions I'm reading.
>
>Joan, et al:
>
>Lost in the logic, or is that lost in the *lack* of logic? Maybe it is just
>the way I explain things. As far as conclusions from the details we were
>provided with, you are correct. Subjective opinions rendered on the
>incident are assumptive at best. I was hoping Dr Sutherland might get back
>to me about calling the fellow up who spent the night on the bellbouy, so
>we could find out the details that the media weren't interested in (type of
>kayak, type of paddling normally done, etc), but Chuck seems to have flown
>the coupe.    
>
>> I'm not suggesting that
>>he didn't make mistakes that could have been avoided but why are you
>calling him,
>>" a loose cannon in a sport where we all take aim at certain activities
>and levels
>>of risk?" For me, part of being new is not knowing all the questions and not
>>knowing all the factors when they look you in the face. What am I missing
>here? I
>>still don't know exactly why he couldn't get back in his boat. For someone
>with
>>his exposure to the sport this seems exceptionally weird. Was it a lack of
>skills
>>or was he hurt or what? I agree he made a number of mistakes but the one
that
>>seems to be picked on most is that he went out at all. Am I misreading this?
>
>Yes. You are misreading this from my point of view. He can go out, no
>problemo. But, don't you think given the conditions present and what the
>consequences could be of coming out of the kayak, he should have been with
>another paddler or better prepared or better equipped. The Coast Guard,
>universally, don't usually mind going out to help mariners in distress -
>that is what they get paid to do, and that is what they are there for, and
>they know that going out on the ocean is always a calculated risk where
>misscalculations are made . But, again, universally, the Coast Guard very
>much dislike evening and night searches. It puts there men more at risk,
>and when the object of their search has no way of signaling the
>authorities, it is very frustrating.
> 
>>    The longer this thread runs the more confused I am. I am gaining no
>clarity on
>>the issue thought I am seeing a lot of opinions. It could be I'm making
>this issue
>>more complicated than it is but it looks REAL complicated from my
>computer. I've
>>read the SK article on risk assessment and all the postings here. I still
>don't
>>get why some of you are so harsh in you evaluation. It may be justified
>but so far
>>I have not heard a logical argument for saying, "This guy was way over the
>edge
>>for normal. "
>>    In real simple, short thoughts, can someone explain this to me, please?
>
>I suggest you go to the recent thread with Ralph (he writes with more
>clarity than anyone on this list, I'd say). The issue came up about
>acceptable behavior, if I can use that term. We have a helmet law here in
>BC, for both bicycles and motor bikes. I work in the medical field -
>government funded medicare - and I think it is the best thing that ever
>happened (sorry James). When I see a bicyclist go by at night, without a
>helmet, without a light, I call them loose cannons. When I see a roller
>bladder without protective equipment threading through traffic, the same
>response is invoked. And when I hear of a paddler out alone is nasty
>condition without the normal requisite gear, experience, training, and
>immediate assistance of fellow paddlers, the same response is invoked. If
>you "don't get it" fine, you don't have to. But please try and understand
>my point of view, as I don't just post off the top of my head. 
>
>I'm not sure what your level of understanding is with the various kayak
>pursuits. In river kayaking, we are not loaded down with self sufficient
>rescue equipment. There is a car at the put-in and the take-out. You have
>friends along with you. If you bail in average conditions, you get to shore
>and get back in - no paddle floats, no re-enter and rolls, no VHF radios
>calling for help. Surfing, same thing. Minimum gear, lee shore beach
>waiting for you. Now switch to an  estuarian river mouth. Current flowing
>out to sea, waves and wind present, paddler has no reliable re-entry, no
>back-up equipment, no buddies, and no distress equipment. What is he? A
>minimalist river paddler out over his head? A sea kayaker under-equipped
>and undertrained, and unaware of how dangerous and predisposed to disaster
>the situation was? I don't have the all the answers, Joan. But something
>doesn't jive with the situation, that's all. Am I permitted to say that? If
>not, I will shut-up. I'm happy to have a dialogue with myself. And maybe I
>will even switch the term "loose cannon" to "an unknown paddler profile"
>that to me doesn't fit into an "acceptable" acceptable risk category. That
>ain't confusing to me, anyway.
>
>BC'in Ya
>Doug Lloyd
>     
>
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